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Donald L. Ratliff
VP–Virginia Government and External Affairs
Alpha Natural Resources
One Alpha Place
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Bristol, VA 24202
P.O. Box 16429
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Bristol, VA 24209
276.619.4479 (office)
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276.623.2891 (fax)
276.275.1423 (cell)
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9. Presidential Popularity—REPUBLICAN
As I write this, Obama’s popularity has fallen in Virginia and
is in the low to mid-40s. If he goes much lower, it could cause the
‘presidential curse’ to kick in. The last year when Virginians elected
a governor of the same party as the incumbent president was 1973.
10. Special Issues and Dominant Circumstances—
NO ADVANTAGE
Again, we’ll see. First, we have to see what happens in both
the SEC investigation of GreenTech and the feds’ investigation into
McDonnell. I could see an October event having a major impact on
this contest.
Where do you see the races for Lt. Governor and Attorney
General at this time?
Ralph Northam leads E.W. Jackson, and barring a solid Cuccinelli
victory with coattails, Northam should win. The AG contest is close,
so far as of late September a toss-up. This could be a coattail race for
the Democrats, or Republicans could continue their string of AG wins
going back to 1993.
Can you tell us what trends to look for on Election Night?
Will Fairfax County still be the ‘bellweather’ county?
Fairfax has a strong Democratic tilt. The real bellwethers now
in Northern Virginia are Loudoun and Prince William counties.
Another key county to watch will be Henrico outside of Richmond.
Other localities worth following to see the trend on election night are
Virginia Beach, Albemarle County and Montgomery County.
Michael E. Belefski, is President of CPC CORPORATION, a
Communications and Marketing Firm specializing in Performance
Management Analysis in Business, Law and Political Systems.
What remains unclear is whether ethics reform can be a set
of issues that drives voters to the polls on Nov. 5 and whether the
proposals provide a significant advantage to one political party’s
candidates.
“Hopefully we can find some things both parties can agree on,”
House Minority Leader David J. Toscano, D-Charlottesville, said.
“The proof is in the specific requirements of disclosure,” he said.
Toscano, a member of the House of Delegates since 2006, said
legislators might find a $50 gift limit too restrictive. He said a $100
limit on gifts might be more realistic. “It’s hard to totally regulate
ethical behavior. A lot of it is personal responsibility,” he said.
“I think there is absolutely no doubt that the public would like to
see us change the way we do business in Richmond,” Toscano said.
“I think there will be an effort, at least on the Democratic side, for an
ethics commission. There is going to be a lot of discussion about how
they work in other states.”
Delegate Edward T. Scott, R-Madison, said the public would like
to see more transparency. “There is voter interest in it,” said Scott, a
member of the House since 2004.
“We have operated for a number of years on the principle we are
transparent,” he said. “We have lost some confidence from the public
that we are transparent.” There will be discussion about gifts made to
immediate family members of officials, Scott said.
If there are maximum gift limits under discussion, would that rule
out expense-paid trips to conferences? Scott said. “Then you start
getting into what is a gift.” A lobbying group’s annual conference at
a nice hotel could run $1,500. Such conferences can be of value to a
legislator, he added.
“If you are having a burger and a beer with a lobbyist instead of
a Morton’s steak, fine,” Scott said. “I always reported it if Tech or
UVA invited me to a football game,” he said. That might not pass a
$50 gift limit test.
Will ethics drive voters to the polls? “Outside of the governor’s
race, I don’t think so,” Scott said. “My sense is a number of my
colleagues are giving this some thought. I think it will definitely be
a focus.”
“I don’t think it’s going to drive voters to the polls,” but the
public would like to see action on ethics, said Speaker William J.
Howell, R-Stafford County.
Howell, a member of the House since 1988, agreed that it can
be hard to define what is a gift and said he personally does not favor
limits on gifts. One emphasis may be on better reporting and more
transparency.
“I think it is going to be a big issue” in the 2014 session, he said.
“We have had a task force looking at it for a month or so…I think
we are going to come up with some good and successful solutions,”
he said.
Bob Gibson is the executive director of the Sorensen Institute for
Political Leadership at the University of Virginia.
A dictionary definition of ethics differs
from a definition of law.
Ethics is defined in Merriam-Webster as
“an area of study that deals with ideas about
what is good and bad behavior: a branch
of philosophy dealing with what is right or
wrong.”
Ethics implies a choice or choices while
law is more of a hard floor for behavior
below which it is unlawful. Merriam-
Webster calls law “the whole system or set
of rules made by the government of a town, state, country, etc.”
The Virginia General Assembly generally spends a lot of time on
laws and not so much on ethics, but next year may be different.
The legislature may move to elevate the floor a little as it considers
sets of bills to limit gifts to officials and members of their families,
to establish tighter reporting and perhaps even an ethics commission
more powerful than an advisory afterthought.
House of Delegates candidates on both sides of the aisle have
raised ethics reform as a major issue for the 2014 session of the
General Assembly.
Bills are being introduced to limit the size of gifts to $50 or
$100 and increase reporting requirements in a state that has among
the nation’s most lax rules governing gifts to elected officials and
their families. Current Virginia law places no limit on the value of
reportable gifts that elected officials can receive. Disclosure of gifts to
family members is left up to officials and often avoided.
Proposals to establish an independent ethics commission that is
more than just an advisory body of former legislators also are being
discussed as possible ethics reforms.
Ethics to be a widely discussed issue in the 2014 session
By Bob Gibson
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