V
irginia
C
apitol
C
onnections
, S
ummer
/F
all
2013
4
This interview with Dr. Larry J. Sabato,
Director of the Center
for Politics at The University of Virginia
, that I conducted in late
September indicates that on November 5th, we may have a cliffhanger
race for governor, a Democratic lieutenant governor, and a toss-up
contest for attorney general depending on circumstances that will
occur during the last weeks of the 2013 campaign cycle.
Dr. Sabato, who authored “The Ten Keys to the Governor’s
Mansion” published in
The University of Virginia Newsletter
in
1998 was extremely accurate in analyzing prevailing political party
conditions in the general election for governor. From 1969 to 1977,
he analyzed that when Republicans had only one to three advantages,
the winners were in 1981, Chuck Robb, (D) (53.5%); 1985, Gerald
Baliles, (D) (55.2%) and 1969 Doug Wilder, (D) (50.1%). When
Democrats had only one to three advantages, the winners were in
1969, Linwood Holton, (R) (52.5%); 1973, Mills Godwin (R)
(50.7%); 1977 John Dalton, (R) (55.9%); 1993 George Allen, (R)
(58.3%); and 1997 Jim Gilmore, (R) (55.8%).
I asked Dr. Sabato for his thoughts on this campaign cycle based
on his “Ten Keys to the Governor’s Mansion.”
He briefly commented on each of the current prevailing conditions
as to which political party has the advantage—to let our readers
know whether the advantage in each area goes to the Democrats,
Republicans or No Strong Advantage to one side.
Barring a major impact event this October, the current outlook
looks like a close election with both the Democrats and the
Republicans having an advantage in only two of the ten prevailing
conditions in the general election for governor.
1. Economy—NO ADVANTAGE
Most Virginians believe the economy is decent but not roaring.
It’s better than four years ago, but Democrats give the credit to
President Obama and Republicans to Gov. Bob McDonnell. I don’t
see a strong advantage here for either side.
2. Party Unity—DEMOCRAT
Almost no Ds have defected to Cuccinelli. Moderate Republicans
by the score have endorsed McAuliffe or are not lifting a finger for
Cuccinelli. And then there’s Bill Bolling, who appears to favor
McAuliffe over Cuccinelli.
Barring October
surprises, expect
a close election for
the Commonwealth’s
next governor
An interview with
Dr. Larry J. Sabato
By Mike Belefski
Belefski
sabato
3. Scandal—NO ADVANTAGE
Both sides have big problems in this
category. It’s GreenTech versus Giftgate—
and plenty more besides.
4. Campaign Organization/Technology—NO ADVANTAGE
I’m not sure about this one yet. McAuliffe has bought the Obama
voter contact technology that worked so well for the President in 2008
and especially 2012. McAuliffe’s money edge is also enabling him to
run a much stronger campaign than Creigh Deeds did four years ago.
But Cuccinelli has intense support among the GOP base from the Tea
Party, NRA, and pro-life groups.
5. Campaign Money—DEMOCRAT
McAuliffe has used his money-raising talent well, and probably will
retain a spending edge. But Cuccinelli isn’t being blown out of the water.
National conservatives and the Republican Governors Association are
keeping him competitive, if behind, in the money game.
6. Candidate Personality/Appeal—NO ADVANTAGE
This is a classic lesser-of-evils, process-of-elimination election.
Most votes are being generated by dislike of the other guy. As many
polls have shown, we’ve never had a gubernatorial election where the
two major-party candidates had such low favorability ratings.
7. Prior Office Experience of Candidates—REPUBLICAN
Cuccinelli’s service as a state senator and state AG is a traditional
pathway to the governorship. McAuliffe has never served in public
office, like MarkWarner and Linwood Holton.
8. Retrospective Judgment on Previous Governor—
NO ADVANTAGE
A year ago we all thought this might be one of the reasons why
a Republican could get elected in 2013. Bob McDonnell was soaring
in the polls, and the last time a party got just one term in the Mansion
was in the 1880s. But Giftgate has made Governor McDonnell a
neutral factor, at best. As this is written, we don’t know whether an
indictment is coming, or when, but regardless, too much has come out
for McDonnell to be of much help to Cuccinelli. They aren’t exactly
close anyway.
Continued on next page
