qm_spring

irginia

apitol

onnections

, S

pring

2017

The Wason Center for Public Policy’s

most recent survey of Virginia voters

provides a snapshot of the status of the

Republican and Democratic gubernatorial

primaries as the contests begin to heat up.

Heading into April the Democratic

primary is deadlocked, with “insurgent”

candidate Tom Perriello (who garners

support from much of the Bernie Sanders base) and “establishment”

favorite Ralph Northam (who Clinton supporters tend to favor) tied

at 26%. That Perriello has pulled even with Northam despite the fact

that Northam is the current Lieutenant Governor of Virginia and has

been endorsed by popular governor Terry McAuliffe, provides some

evidence of momentum on Perriello’s side.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, former Republican

National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie leads his next closest

competitor by 27 points, buoyed both by his national profile from his

days serving in the Republican National Committee as well as high

name recognition built on his closer-than-expected run against Senator

MarkWarner in the 2014 U.S. Senate race.

However, even with this advantage in name recognition more

than half of Virginia voters had no opinion of Gillespie, while nearly

two-thirds had no opinions of Northam or Perriello. These numbers

demonstrate how hard it is for candidates to gain traction among voters

in a primary season when turnout could be as low as 10%.

In terms of other statewide elections, former chief of staff to

Senator Joe Biden Susan Platt and State Senator Jill Vogel lead the

Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively, for Lieutenant

Governor, but a majority of respondents have yet to form an opinion on

any of the candidates running. Virginia voters also favored Democratic

candidates 48-41 in a generic ballot for the House of Delegates, which

has all 100 seats up for grabs this November. This 7 percent generic

ballot advantage could signal a tough spell for House Republicans,

who are also facing democratic challengers in 48 of the 66 seats they

currently hold.

In a series of hypothetical general election matchups, Gillespie and

Northam were virtually tied (with Gillespie edging Northam 40-39),

and Gillespie tied Perriello 39-39. These numbers show just how tight

this fall’s general election could end up being, and offer no indication

of which Democratic candidate would fare better against Gillespie.

What may ultimately end up proving decisive is the degree to which

Gillespie is able to avoid any strong Donald Trump-related headwinds.

Trump’s approval rating inVirginia is a mere 37%, which indicates some

erosion of support in the state since Election Day when he received 45%

of the vote. The survey also finds that nearly 70% of Virginia voters,

including 40% of Republican voters, would like to see an independent

investigation of possible ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.

Like it or not, Virginia’s gubernatorial contest will be a referendum on

the newly elected president so the Republican nominee’s fortune is

closely tied to the performance of President Trump.

Quentin Kidd is the Vice Provost for Undergraduate Education,

Professor of Political Science, and Director of theWason Center for

Public Policy at Christopher Newport University.

Rachel Bitecofer is a political science professor and is the Assistant

Director of theWason Center for Public Policy at Christopher

Newport University.

Collin Buchanan is a sophomore andWason Center for Public Policy

Research Fellow at Christopher Newport University.

Race to Replace McAuliffe

kicks off with Party Primaries

in June

By Quentin Kidd, Rachel Bitecofer,

and Collin Buchanan

It’s nearly summer of 2017 and guess

what? Virginia is STILL trying to finalize

its redistricting plans…based on the 2010

census. What is going on?

The constitution entrusts the process of

drawing state legislative and congressional

district lines to the state legislatures. With

few exceptions, this means that the process

of drawing those district lines lies in the

hands of the party that controls the state

legislature. The result has been and continues to be a rancorous,

expensive ritual that was supposed to be decennial but, at least in

Virginia, has become a constant preoccupation of our elected

officials. Instead of occurring once every ten years, it seems to take

ten years to try to do it correctly.

This is a heinous conflict of interest: our elected officials

condition the process by which they are returned to office. This

is akin to a baseball pitcher altering the strike zone every time he

faces a batter or a golfer moving the pin to suit her putting. These

are venal, silly examples of situations in which anyone would cry

“foul”. So why do we sit back and ignore cries of foul about the

redistricting process?

In fact, “redistricting” is a misnomer. Our voting districts are

“gerrymandered.” Every line, every twist and turn is designed to

create districts that, first and foremost, suit the partisan interests of

the legislative majority and legislative incumbents. The process is

constrained by the one person, one vote requirement and the Voting

Rights Act’s restrictions on discriminating against minority voters.

But, state legislators can and do work around these constraints to

draw contorted voting districts that have served only to ensure

that incumbents are essentially unbeatable, challengers don’t

have a chance and, in the end, voters really have little choice on

Election Day.

This applies to any district, regardless of the race, party or

gender of the incumbents. At the congressional level, Republican

Bob Goodlatte has been as unbeatable as Democrat Bobby Scott.

Unless they are surprised in a primary (as Eric Cantor was in 2014),

our congressional incumbents leave office only through retirement

or natural causes. As a result, there is almost no reason to vote in

a Virginia congressional election. The typical margin of incumbent

victory is so large that voting for the incumbent is as much a waste of

time (she is going to win anyway) as voting against one (he is going

to win anyway).

One of the terrible ironies of all this is that the Voting Rights Act

has been undermined by gerrymandering. Sure, districts are drawn to

embrace majorities of Hispanic, black or other minority voters where

possible. But, in the end, those minority incumbents are as unbeatable

as their Anglo colleagues. The result is that the VRA has become

simply an instrument to return racial minority incumbents to office as

easily as white incumbents. Meanwhile, minority voters are given as

poor a choice on Election Day as their white counterparts.

Some would say this is progress in the march towards racial

equality and fairness: elections are equally uncompetitive and voters

have equally poor choices regardless of their race, creed, gender and

so forth.

But, the Voting Rights Act and elections are about the rights of

voters

—not the interests of elected officials. Elections should provide

voters with real choices among candidates. Elections should entail

The Gerrymandering Jackpot

–and Our Unconstitutional

System of Elections

By Mark Rush

See

The Gerrymandering Jackpot

, continued on page 13

KIDD