V
irginia
C
apitol
C
onnections
, S
pring
2014
10
Northern Virginia demonstrates the
dangers for the GOP if the party does
not respond to a rapidly changing state
electorate. While the percentages for the
Democrat candidates were about the same
in Fairfax County in both elections, doing
as well translated into nearly 13,000
more votes for the Democrats in 2013.
Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli, in
contrast, only ended up with 6,600 more
Fairfax votes than Jerry Kilgore, the party’s
2005 nominee, received.
The 2013 gubernatorial candidates
did not move the partisan needle much
in bellwether Prince William County
either. But once again, the gap favoring
the Democrats widened: another 17,000
more votes were cast for McAuliffe when
compared to Kaine. The gain for the GOP
was just over 10,000.
While both Democrats won Henrico County outside Richmond,
McAuliffe ended up with more than 4,000 more votes than Kaine did,
despite securing a lower total percentage. The Republican county vote
total was about 1,000 less than in 2005, in part because of Libertarian
candidate Robert Sarvis’ campaign. Kaine also did better, percentage
wise, in Richmond, where he had served as mayor. But McAuliffe
received more than 4,000 more votes there than Kaine did in 2005.
Stafford and Spotsylvania counties are exceptions to trends that
show the Democrats gaining ground even when they stand still.
Cuccinelli won both counties with a larger margin than Kilgore did,
receiving more than 9,000 additional votes in the two jurisdictions.
McAuliffe received about 3,000 more votes than Kaine did in the two
counties, thanks to population growth.
McAuliffe’s lack of government experience and his questionable
business practices notwithstanding, he did just about as well in the
state’s urban and suburban areas
as did Kaine, an incumbent
lieutenant governor who in 2005
benefitted from the popularity
of then Gov. Mark Warner (D).
Next time, the GOP may face a
more experienced Democratic
nominee than McAuliffe was.
Taken
together,
these
results show that Republican
candidates for statewide office
need to focus on where the
voters are, geographically, as
well as demographically and
culturally. GOP candidates who
want to win, in other words,
should think of the state as a
pair of scissors.
Stephen J. Farnsworth is
professor of political science
and
international
affairs
and director of the Center
for Leadership and Media
Studies at the University of
Mary Washington. Stephen P.
Hanna is professor and chair of
geography at UMW.
If you want to understand the results of last year’s race for
governor of Virginia, it helps to think about the state as if it were
shaped like a pair of scissors.
Imagine, in other words, big round circles where Northern
Virginia and Hampton Roads are, with a thin, long pointy end
representing Roanoke, Danville and points west.
Why think of Virginia this way? Because people vote, counties
can’t.
Traditional, acreage-basedmaps of the state’s votingpatterns show
a string of Republican majority counties stretching from the Eastern
Shore and the Northern Neck through Stafford and Spotsylvania
counties and west all the way to Kentucky. The Democratic blue
may be bright in cities like Alexandria and Richmond and counties
like Fairfax, but the vast majority of counties in “purple” Virginia are
colored Republican red.
The map accompanying this column better represents the
geographic distribution of Virginia’s voters than a traditional state
map. This map, called a cartogram, scales the size of each jurisdiction
by votes cast rather than by acreage. Fairfax County, Richmond, and
Virginia Beach cast more votes and, therefore, appear much larger
than the state’s many rural counties.
Viewed in this voter-focused way, Virginia does indeed look like
a pair of scissors. The traditional map, based on the physical size
of counties, may be comforting to Republicans. But it obscures the
problems that Republicans face in winning statewide elections going
forward.
The challenges faced by the GOP can also be seen by comparing
the 2013 results with those of 2005, the last time a Democrat was
elected governor. In many parts of the state, Gov. Terry McAuliffe
(D) did only as well, and sometimes not as well, as Tim Kaine (D) did
in his race for governor eight years ago. But, because the Democrats
maintained roughly the same percentage of the vote in areas with the
greatest population increases over the past eight years, the larger vote
margins offset GOP gains in more rural counties.
How the democrats won Virginia in 2013
By Stephen J. Farnsworth and Stephen P. Hanna
Hanna
Farnsworth
V
