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V

irginia

C

apitol

C

onnections

, S

ummer

2016

14

On March 1, Virginia voters went to the polls as part of the Super

Tuesday Presidential Primaries. While primaries are not necessarily

predictive of the outcomes of general elections, the patterns and

trends in participation and support may offer clues as to the potential

appeal of the Presidential candidates in November.

With Virginia likely to be a highly contested state, we provide

analysis of the city and county votes for each party. We demonstrate

the relationships between candidate support and factors such as

region of the state, minority share of the population, income levels,

and residents in college. Our findings include:

Key Points

Turnout

Participation by Virginians in the 2016 Presidential primary

surpassed all previous levels for the Commonwealth. More than one-

third (34.32%) of Virginia’s voters voted. The previous record was

31.77%, set in 2008.

GOP turnout was 19.43% of registered voters, up 8.92 points

Reading the Tea Leaves:

Do the Virginia Presidential Primaries

Offer a Clue to November’s Vote?

By John M

c

Glennon and Jakob A. Deel

M

c

Glennon

Deel

from 2008, breaking the record set in 2000. Democratic turnout was

14.89%, down from 2008’s record of 21.42%.

Republican turnout increases were biggest in rural areas and the

Washington and Richmond suburbs. Democrats lost turnout the most

in Hampton Roads and Southwest but held steadier in college towns

and the Northern suburbs (Tables 1 and 2).

Republican turnout was negatively correlated with African-

American, Hispanic, and student population but positively correlated

with median income. Democratic turnout was positively correlated

with all those characteristics. Most of these correlations were stronger

this year than in 2008.

Democratic Results

Hillary Clinton won overall with 64.29% of the vote to Bernie

Sanders’ 35.20%. Clinton won by large margins in most areas except

in college towns and the white, rural Southwest (Table 1).

Support for Clinton was positively

correlated

with

African-American

population and negatively correlated with

student population and median income.

However, Clinton performed better in some

key college towns than she did in 2008.

Republican Results

Donald Trump won with 34.80% of

the vote to Marco Rubio’s 31.98%, Ted

Cruz’s 16.69%, and John Kasich’s 9.54%.

Trump did best in whiter, more rural areas,

dominating in the Southwest and beating his

overall average in the Shenandoah Valley.

Ted Cruz’s performance was very similar,

and he did especially well in the Valley.

Rubio and Kasich fared best in suburbs

and college towns (Table 2), and they

actually took first and third, respectively, in

Northern Virginia.

Marco Rubio and John Kasich

both performed better in localities with

higher median incomes, larger Hispanic

populations, and higher shares of the

population in college. Support for Donald

Trump and Ted Cruz had negative

correlations with those characteristics.

Implications for the

General Election

Democrats

Clinton had strong support among

low-income and African-American voters.

She also fared well in the Washington and

Richmond suburbs, which, along with

Hampton Roads, were the areas with the

highest Democratic primary turnout. These

results among the Democratic base suggest

she will perform well in Virginia come

November.

2016 Democratic Primary in Virginia by Selected Regions

Presents the percent of the vote for these candidates won by each;

Ignores the <1% of statewide vote for other candidates

Sanders

Clinton

Percent Voting for Candidates

in Regions

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Total

Hampton Roads Northern

Southwest

Central

Valley

2016 Republican Primary in Virginia by Selected Regions

Percent Voting for Candidates

in Regions

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Total

Hampton Roads Northern

Southwest

Central

Valley

Presents the percent of the vote for these candidates won by each;

Ignores the <1% of statewide vote for other candidates

Trump

Rubio

Cruz

Kasich

Carson

More detailed primary results and analysis are available at: https://www.wm.edu/as/government/_documents/ virginia-2016-primary-results-report.pdf