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Virginia Capitol C onnections, Summer 2015 5
explanation was that Stimpson was never going to have the element of
surprise that Brat did. But another important factor is that the aggressive
outreach employed by Howell's campaign gave many residents a pretty
good sense of the speaker’s background.
Even so, Stimpson’s roughly 2,900 votes were more than the victors
received in the other three contested Republican primaries for delegate
on June 9.
As the primary day approached, Stimpson’s campaign made
increasingly extreme—and implausible—claims. The campaign
said Howell had a plan to expand Medicaid, a controversial part of
the Affordable Care Act that led to a months-long standoff between
Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe and the Republican majorities
in the legislature last year. In fact, Howell and other Republicans
last year risked a Washington-style government shutdown unless the
governor backed down on the Medicaid expansion idea (which he did).
The Stimpson team likewise charged that Howell was insufficiently
conservative on other hot-button issues, including gun rights and crime.
Quite simply, it’s hard to make extreme campaign attacks that stick
in fact the face of aggressive incumbent outreach, a largely conservative
voting record, and decades of connection to the district. Howell had a
record of conservative lawmaking to counter the challenger’s claims,
and the money to spread that message across the district. The Stimpson
campaign’s main problem was that the voters of the district really did
“know Bill.”
Stephen J. Farnsworth is professor of political science and
international affairs at the University of MaryWashington in
Fredericksburg, where he directs the university’s Center for
Leadership and Media Studies.
The defeat of long-term GA member Democrat Johnny
Joannou by the more liberal Heretick is a victory for Governor
McAuliffe in his effort to elect a General Assembly amenable to
Medicare expansion and other policy goals. But it is a limited
victory. Joannou’s defeat owes much to local political issues
involving the remarkably bad tolls deal Virginia struck with
Elizabeth River Crossings. And the departure of another moderate
Democrat is likely to exacerbate polarization.
Jesse Richman
Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies
Director, Social Science Research Center
Old Dominion University
Bill Howell’s Primary Victory
By Stephen J. Farnsworth
Sometimes Goliath sees David coming.
For months now, many Virginian
Republicans have feared they would become
the next Eric Cantor, the former US House
Majority Leader who lost his re-nomination
to a Tea Party challenger in June 2014. Dave
Brat, the relatively unknown Randolph-
Macon College economics professor turned
political giant-killer and now member of
Congress, gave hope to long-shot primary
challengers inVirginia and beyond.
So when Susan Stimpson, former chair of the Stafford County
Board of Supervisors, challenged House Speaker Bill Howell for the
Republican nomination for the 28th District of the Virginia House of
Delegates, the 27-year incumbent took nothing for granted.
Howell raisedmore than $1million, an unheard of amount of money
for a House of Delegates primary nomination in the Fredericksburg-
centered district. The campaign knocked on thousands and thousands
of doors and waged an aggressive absentee ballot effort. The campaign
plastered the city and the district’s neighboringStaffordCounty precincts
with “We Know Bill” yard signs. And anyone with a computer in the
district was blanketed with the “We Know Bill” campaign message
when they went online.
As a result, Howell did not suffer a Cantor-style defeat for
renomination. Not even close. He rolled to a relatively wide margin of
victory in the district, winning by a 62 percent to 38 percent margin, and
claimed victory in 19 of its 23 precincts. The district had the highest
turnout statewide, with its 15.6 percent participation double the 7.8
percent average statewide. The more than 4,700 votes Howell received
was 1,000 more votes than any winner received in any of the other nine
contested House of Delegate primaries this spring.
While challengingHowell had tobedaunting, Stimpsonnevertheless
had some reason for hope. Virginia’s low-turnout primaries have been
friendly to Tea Party activist candidates in recent years. Besides Cantor’s
defeat, two senior Republicans in the Legislature who supported then-
Gov. Bob McDonnell’s 2013 transportation bill, which included a tax
increase, were defeated in primaries by more conservative Republicans
two years ago. Stimpson tried to follow that anti-incumbent playbook.
She focused her campaign on Howell’s support of the Republican
governor’s transportation plan and the related tax increase, arguing that
Howell was out of step with today’s Republican voters.
The 28th District also has another factor that makes it somewhat
challenger-friendly compared to many other state legislative districts
outside northernVirginia. The rapid population growth of both Stafford
and Fredericksburg mean that many local incumbents are not all that
well known to large numbers of district voters who moved to the area
between elections. More rural districts, in contrast, feature more stable
electorates of longer-term residents.
But the guerrilla campaign approach that propelled Brat to an
unexpected victory didn’t give Stimpson the same traction. Part of the
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